Tuesday, March 01, 2011

Oscar Predictions Post-Mortem

Well, the statuettes have all been handed out, the parties are all over, and the winners (and non-winners) are just recovering from their Oscar-night hangovers. That means it's time to see how everything shook out prediction-wise. Traditionally, I've compared my predictions to Entertainment Weekly to see who did better (this started because I had a subscription in high school, and continued after that lapsed because it was already a habit). 

This year, Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger and I actually tied (if memory serves, I beat him 5 of the last 7 years), each correctly predicting 16 of the 24 awards categories, so I decided to also see how I fared against some other prognosticators.

But first thing's first; here's the breakdown:

What I Got Right:
Best Picture - The King's Speech 
Best Actor - Colin Firth 
Best Actress - Natalie Portman 
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale 
Best Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network 
Best Original Screenplay - The King's Speech 
Best Foreign Language Film - In a Better World 
Best Animated Feature Film - Toy Story 3 
Best Documentary Feature - Inside Job 
Best Documentary Short Subject - "Strangers No More" 
Best Film Editing - The Social Network
Best Original Score - The Social Network 
Best Original Song - "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 
Best Sound Editing - Inception 
Best Sound Mixing - Inception 
Best Visual Effects - Inception  

What I Got Wrong (My predictions are in parentheses):
Best Director - Tom Hooper (David Fincher) 
Here I overestimated The Social Network's support and assumed voters were having a tough time choosing, thus throwing a consolation prize to the film. Obviously they had no regret, giving 4 of the top awards to The King's Speech.

Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo (Hailee Steinfeld) 
Watching Melissa Leo's awful speech at the Oscars makes you all wish I'd been right here, doesn't it?

Best Animated Short Film - "The Lost Thing" ("The Gruffalo") 
Almost no one predicted "The Lost Thing" could beat "The Gruffalo" and "Day & Night."

Best Live-Action Short Film - "God of Love" ("Wish 143") 
Such a good film, and such a wonderful acceptance speech.

Best Art Direction - Alice in Wonderland (The King's Speech

Best Cinematography - Inception (True Grit

Best Costume Design - Alice in Wonderland (The King's Speech
It's nice to see a fantasy film take this prize for the first time since the third Lord of the Rings film. Even more impressive that it beat a film about royals.

Best Makeup - The Wolfman (Barney's Version)  
I said this could happen...it's a shame too, because the film was really awful. The clips they showed during the awards looked more like CGI than makeup anyways, but the voters clearly chose the film with "Most Makeup" rather than "Best Makeup."

As I mentioned, Dave Karger and I tied this year, with him beating me in Costume Design, Makeup, and Art Direction while I beat him by correctly predicting Original Score, Original Song, and Documentary Short. I also tied with Rolling Stone Magazine's Peter Travers and USA Today's Susan Wloszcyna, who each had 16 correct predictions, and beat Roger Ebert and CNN's Thelma Adams, who each got 14 correct predictions. Among major prognosticators, GoldDerby.com editor Andrew Pickett did the best, with 20 out of 24 correct predictions, and AwardsDaily.com editor Sasha Stone did the worst, with 12 out of 24.

Stay tuned this week for a wrapup of the 83rd Academy Awards: What worked, what didn't, and who should be on fashion probation.

Winners for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards

Winners for the 83rd Academy Awards
Winners for the 83rd Academy Awards, for acheivements in film in 2010, were presented February 27th, 8:00 PM EST.

The Academy Awards for achievements in film for the year 2010 were presented on Sunday at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. Winners are indicated with a Winner below.

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Director
Black Swan - Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter - David O. Russell
The King's Speech - Tom HooperWinner
The Social Network - David Fincher
True Grit - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Best Actor
Javier Bardem in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth in The King's SpeechWinner
James Franco in 127 Hours

Best Actress
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black SwanWinner
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in The FighterWinner
John Hawkes in Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner in The Town
Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech
Melissa Leo in The FighterWinner
Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

Best Animated Feature Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3Winner

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours - Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network - Aaron SorkinWinner
Toy Story 3 - Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich
True Grit - Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter's Bone - Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year - Mike Leigh
The Fighter - Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson & Keith Dorrington
Inception - Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right - Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King's Speech - David SeidlerWinner

Best Art Direction
Alice in WonderlandWinner
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
The King's Speech
True Grit

Best Cinematography
Black Swan - Matthew Libatique
Inception - Wally PfisterWinner
The King's Speech - Danny Cohen
The Social Network - Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit - Roger Deakins

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland - Colleen AtwoodWinner
I Am Love - Antonella Cannarozzi
The King's Speech - Jenny Beavan
The Tempest - Sandy Powell
True Grit - Mary Zophres

Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop
Inside JobWinner
Waste Land

Best Documentary Short Subject
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No MoreWinner
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Best Film Editing
Black Swan - Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter - Pamela Martin
The King's Speech - Tariq Anwar
127 Hours - Jon Harris
The Social Network - Angus Wall and Kirk BaxterWinner

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)Winner
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) (Algeria)

Best Makeup
Barney's Version - Adrien Morot
The Way Back - Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
The Wolfman - Rick Baker and Dave ElseyWinner

Best Original Score
How to Train Your Dragon - John Powell
Inception - Hans Zimmer
The King's Speech - Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours - A.R. Rahman
The Social Network - Trent Reznor and Atticus RossWinner

Best Original Song
Coming Home from Country Strong
I See the Light from Tangled
If I Rise from 127 Hours
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3Winner

Best Animated Short Film
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost ThingWinner
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

Best Live-Action Short Film
The Confession
The Crush
God of LoveWinner
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Best Sound Editing
Inception - Richard KingWinner
Toy Story 3 - Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
Tron: Legacy - Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
True Grit - Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
Unstoppable - Mark P. Stoeckinger

Best Sound Mixing
Inception - Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed NovickWinner
The King's Speech - Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
Salt - Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
The Social Network - Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
True Grit - Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland - Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 - Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
Hereafter Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
Inception Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter BebbWinner
Iron Man 2 - Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick